The paradox of predicting the future

In an old podcast episode, I talked about the problem of predicting the future, and why most investors fail. 

The best way I can describe it is thusly:

I grew up in a small town surrounded by farms. 

Naturally, one of the options I had growing up (and into adulthood) was buying meat and produce directly from farmers rather than going to a grocery store. 

As I got older, I opted more and more for the direct-to-farmer approach, for various reasons. 

One of which was, despite growing up around farms, I didn’t really understand how it worked and I was fascinated by it. I mean, not fascinated enough to become a farmer, but I was interested in how everything worked and always enjoyed talking to all the farmers at the local farmer’s market.

Anyway, one of the farms I frequented was a small family-owned farm that did mostly livestock. 

Before I bought anything from them, they agreed to let me tour the farm and see how things worked. 

They showed me where they raised the cows, rabbits, chickens, and so on. 

And… of course, they showed me how the slaughtering process worked.

Years later I got to thinking about it and how oblivious all those farm animals were. 

They lived a great life right up to the end. 

Literally every need fulfilled… right up to the day and even the second before they were slaughtered.

The farmer told me that the more relaxed the animal beforehand, the better the meat quality. 

I dunno if that’s true or not but it does bring up an interesting point. 

The animals never saw it coming. They woke up one day, living a great life and then — bam — a spike through the head or… ZIP — off with their head.

As gruesome as it sounds, the farmers assured me everything was quick and painless and that it was the most humane way to do it.

Which brings me to the gist of today’s emails. 

A lot of today’s investors are a lot like those farm animals. I know that probably sounds a bit crass. Maybe even a little mean-spirited.

It doesn’t make it any less true.

Here’s why I say that:

Back in 2019, I wrote a long article about whole life insurance, and specifically about the critics of whole life insurance. 

Basically, i outlined what i see as the Cassandra-of-Troy-like nature of whole life insurance and the fierce criticisms it draws.

Natural and to be expected, of course. 

Cassandra’s gift was a curse, after all…

Anyway, a lot of people dismissed it or outright rejected the underlying principles in that article, and I received a bunch of troll mail — much of it from professional financial advisors, investment advisors, and insurance agents.

Fast forward to today. 

Literally no one has emailed me with hate mail about that article since the beginning of 2020 when the government lockdowns started, businesses started going under left and right, and unemployment spiked.

All the experts are “dead”. 

Which brings me to the end of today’s story…

If you’re waiting for someone else to give you the “OK” on whether you should buy whole life insurance, you’re wasting your time. 

… especially if you are waiting for authority figures or experts with “neutral” or feels-based opinions (as opposed to for-real objective opinions). 

This is a decision you have to make for yourself.  

If you do this, you’re going to have to become a true Rogue Citizen because, quite frankly, no one is going to care about your money and your welfare more than you.

Your journey starts when you join my email list.

David Lewis

This post brought to you by //The Rogue Agent//. David has been a life insurance agent, and worked with some of the oldest and most respected mutual life insurance companies in the U.S., since 2004. Learn more about him and his business, here.

This post brought to you by //The Rogue Agent//. David has been a life insurance agent, and worked with some of the oldest and most respected mutual life insurance companies in the U.S., since 2004. Learn more about him and his business, here.